A Real World Preview of the Belt and Road Initiative

This post is based on research conducted in Northern Shan State, Myanmar prior to the February 2021 coup.

The Highlands of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor

In a matter of years, Northern Shan State, Myanmar has become one of the most significant geopolitical arenas on the planet. China is vigorously pursuing a foothold in these highlands for a multitude of reasons. The border town of Muse, Myanmar is the gateway of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), the fateful Myanmar arm of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The results of the CMEC will heavily influence the destiny of the BRI and China’s broader expanse.  The fate of the CMEC is heavily contingent upon how things unfold in the notoriously lawless and contested frontier of Northern Shan State (NSS). In NSS, the CMEC is very much alive and lives, livelihoods, and landscapes are being transformed in irreversible ways. Construction is underway on a highly anticipated high-speed railway that will bisect NSS and connect Kunming City to the major trading centers of Muse and Mandalay. Pipelines carrying oil and gas from the Indian Ocean through NSS and into Yunnan Province are emancipating Beijing from its energy vulnerabilities and troubles tied to the South China Sea and the Strait of Malacca. In Yunnan, the CMEC is acclaimed as a lifeline and frontier of opportunities. The CMEC effectively pronounced that the highlands of NSS are open for business. As a result, investors and business people are inundating this resource-rich and highly contested territory. Unsurprisingly, business prospectors and State-Owned Enterprises from China are not simply walking into this frontier and domineering. This is an arena where a long list of competing armed groups write their own terms.

On the ground, the CMEC is so much more than an inverted Y that can be drawn on a map and a list of official delegated projects. It is a physical corridor, or more accurately a gateway, where a new political economy is taking shape. The CMEC officially runs along the road from Muse to Mandalay and then splits to Yangon and Kyaukpyu. On paper, the CMEC will bring infrastructure, opportunities, and development to the highlands. It should increase electrification and improve public services. However, these benefits are not promised. There is concern that local populations will shoulder all of the burdens, suffer from all of the dislocation and environmental degradation, and reap few if any of the gains. Affected communities are not being consulted and even the most fundamental standards of due diligence are being feigned or neglected entirely. If this continues, the CMEC is likely to result in an exponential acceleration of land grabs, displacement, environmental degradation, and community strife on a grand scale.

The situation in the highlands of NSS is evidence of how immense the BRI’s impact will be on local life and politics. What is playing out in NSS is a frenzy of extraction, exploitation, extortion, and militarization. It is a self-fulfilling frenzy in that unscrupulous business interests and rent-seeking armed groups are colluding and feeding one another. It is all made possible by States that are unwilling or unable to protect. Armed groups create and facilitate business opportunities. In many ways, the CMEC has inspired the commercialization of combatants in the frontier. Business interests endow and empower these rent-seeking armed groups. Both parties join forces to prey upon ordinary individuals and communities in the CMEC. The impact on local populations has been devastating. As the conflict economy has become more profitable and armed groups become more emboldened, ordinary people face more and more threats of displacement, land confiscation, racketeering, rent-seeking, exploitation, trafficking, and abuse. This is a humanitarian and human rights crisis with a despotic outlook.

Affected individuals and communities are well aware of what is at stake. They are well aware of the value of their land and are doing everything in their power to keep it. They are trying to mobilize themselves in defense of the CMEC. Workers migrating to and from the area are employing new strategies to protect themselves and one another. Against all odds, communities are pushing back in unprecedented ways. Their objections reveal that there are many culprits and complexities at play. Despite the fact that many local communities have some sort of Chinese familial connections or family members in China, anti-Chinese sentiments in the highlands are deepening. Xenophobic attitudes are being stoked by situations where actors from China show disregard for people or the planet, even when Naypyidaw, the Tatmadaw, or other armed groups are dually responsible for the harm. These sentiments could have serious consequences when considering the long-term outlook of the CMEC and the highlands. Yet, the CMEC’s current win-lose trajectory is not inevitable. If public and private champions of the CMEC are serious about creating a sustainable corridor that produces win-wins, they need to get serious about community engagement and accountability.

The situation is disorienting and produces an inclination to keep distance or stand by. However, affected individuals and communities are calling on stakeholders to do the exact opposite. This is not a situation that can be substantially influenced or transformed from afar. Stakeholders who have an interest in the CMEC would be well advised to become as active in the corridor as possible. The CMEC is happening and the details will be determined along the way. . There are forces in Beijing, Kunming, and Naypyidaw who want this corridor to succeed in a way that produces genuine win-wins on the ground. There are civil society groups working to promote awareness and accountability. There are institutions like Culture and Literature Associations and labor unions and vast grassroots networks working to promote local resiliency and agency. Affected individuals and communities are seeking every opportunity to take action on their own behalf. At every level, there are opportunities to become deeply involved. This is a situation that requires a scalpel rather than a hammer, but that is not a call to passivity. Rather, that is to accentuate nuance and underscore the importance of following the lead of individuals and communities on the ground who are experiencing and navigating the impacts of the CMEC in real-time.